Seoul struggles with N.K. deterrence

Experts call for boosting intelligence capabilities, stronger security and military ties with U.S.

Published : 2013-02-14 20:55
Updated : 2013-02-14 21:21

The South Korean military (left photo) demonstrates the performance of ship-to-surface and submarine-to-surface cruise missiles newly deployed on a 4,400-ton KDX-II destroyer and a 1,800-ton submarine on Thursday. In the right photo Standard Missile 3 Block 1A interceptor is launched from the USS Lake Erie during a Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Navy test in the mid-Pacific, Tuesday. (NAVY/ AP-Yonhap News)

Skepticism is growing over the South Korean military’s ongoing efforts to counter North Korea’s escalated nuclear threat amid increasing calls for a major revamp of its ineffective deterrence strategies and weapons systems.

After the North’s third atomic test on Tuesday, Seoul’s Defense Ministry vowed to accelerate the processes of building the “Kill Chain,” a preemptive strike system, and deploying strategic ballistic missiles, which can cover the whole area of North Korea.

On Thursday, it also unveiled strategic ship-to-ground, submarine-to-ground cruise missiles, underscoring they were capable of surgically striking “specific windows of the North Korean leadership’s offices.”

But these may not be effective enough to cope with the North’s asymmetrical military strategies and assets that include nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, analysts pointed out.

“North Korea now exploits asymmetric and non-linear forms of warfare. It has adapted to the U.S.-ROK (Republic of Korea) military superiority by finding strategies and exploiting the capabilities of asymmetric negation,” said Michael Raska, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

“Therefore, South Korea’s new defense strategy must now allow greater flexibility and adaptability to shifts in strategic environment with military forces having the flexibility and robustness to operate in divergent scenarios.”

To this end, Raska stressed Seoul should pursue military innovation and break away from its long-standing, “static, defensive posture” emphasizing conflict and war avoidance, path dependence and over-reliance on the U.S. forces.

The “Kill Chain” system is at the center of Seoul’s preemptive strike theory. Mobilizing all intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance assets of the South Korea-U.S. combined forces, the system aims to launch strikes within some 30 minutes after signs of Pyongyang’s imminent nuclear or missile provocations are detected.

Seoul initially planned to construct the system by 2015 to target the North’s key missile bases and nuclear facilities including those in its main Yongbyon complex. It consists of four implementation stages ― detection, assessment, decision and strike.

“Using mobile launchers, the North may launch a strike and move away within some 20 minutes. It is very difficult to detect and hit each one of them in a short period of time,” said a military expert, who declined to be named, citing his organization’s policy.

“It would have some psychological impact to threaten the North. But frankly speaking, it is like the North with nukes has live ammunitions while we are bluffing them with blank ammos.”

The North is known to have some 100 mobile launchers that can carry mid-range ballistic missiles that put the whole of South Korea within striking range. The launchers are mounted on large military vehicles with six to eight wheels. Analysts believe the vehicles have been smuggled from China or modified based on Chinese models.

The North reportedly has up to 40 mobile launchers that can carry Scud missiles with ranges of between 300 and 1,000 km, up to 40 launchers for Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km, and 14 launchers for Musudan missiles with ranges of between 3,000 km and 4,000 km.

Aside from the constraints caused by the mobile launchers, some experts expressed concern that under the Kill Chain system, the South would have to rely inordinately on U.S. intelligence assets. Seoul retakes wartime operational control from Washington in December 2015.

Seoul plans to deploy a military reconnaissance satellite by 2021, while uncertainty still remains high over the fate of Seoul’s high-profile project to acquire the high-altitude Global Hawk spy drones made by Northrop Grumman based in Virginia.

Seoul has sought to buy four of the long-endurance drones by 2015 with an initial budget of 450 billion won ($414 million), but the project has been stalled due primarily to their increased prices.

“(Given the OPCON transfer), the problem facing the South Korean military is that it should excessively depend on the U.S. for intelligence as it does not have a military intelligence satellite and any high-altitude spy drones,” said Kim Yeoul-soo, politics professor at Sungshin Women’s University.

“The South has to build a complete system that can monitor all of North Korea around the clock with a military geostationary orbit satellite and spy drones so that it can lessen our reliance on the U.S.”

Amid the increasing nuclear threat, calls have mounted that Seoul should start considering whether to develop its own nuclear deterrence or ask the U.S. to redeploy its tactical nuclear weapons.

But experts largely concur that “nuclear balancing” is unrealistic given that the U.S., the South’s central security ally, has been leading the global initiative of arms control under its much-trumpeted vision of a “nuclear-free world.”

“Should the North become a de facto nuclear state, there might be no other option for Seoul but to develop its own nuclear arms to deter the North. Obama’s nuclear-free world vision is, frankly, only idealistic. We never know what kind of a nuclear policy the next U.S. government might adopt,” said the anonymous security expert.

“Seoul can claim to the U.S. that it needs to have nukes as a political, defense means, not for any actual military use. The South is not a rogue state, would not threaten others, but just for self-defense. With nuclear arms, the North would regard the South as a legitimate negotiating partner of the same military might.”

Some experts noted that Seoul has focused mainly on the hardware of its military rather than the software, underscoring it should alter its military concepts, tactics and strategies in line with the changing security landscape.

“South Korea has focused primarily on the ‘hardware’ side ― allocating resource for the procurement and acquisition of selected advanced weapons technologies, systems and platforms whether imported or indigenously developed platforms, which were then integrated into existing organizational force structures and operational concepts,” said Raska of Nanyang Technological University.

“However, the required ‘software’ components ― the relevant organizational, conceptual and doctrinal innovation to utilize the new technologies ― have not been implemented.”

The military expert also pointed to the protracted over-reliance on the U.S. forces coupled with existing inter-service rivalries and their varying doctrinal and technological preferences as major hurdles facing the South Korean military.

“One could argue that South Korea’s traditional security paradigm precluded greater flexibility and adaptability in translating selected defense reforms into practice, and essentially led to incremental military innovation,” he said.

“The principal challenge for South Korea’s military is developing a ‘dynamic’ range of capabilities that are agile, flexible, affordable and multi-mission oriented for a broader range of potential contingencies.”

To deal with the incremental military challenges from the North, experts also stressed Seoul should bolster its security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.

Some also argue when the North Korean threat further increases with additional nuclear tests, Seoul might have to consider asking the U.S. to delay the transfer of wartime operational control.

Kim Jang-soo, the designate for the incoming government’s top security official, has said that the OPCON transfer would proceed as planned unless there are “serious security problems” caused by armed clashes between the two Koreas or South Korea’s lack of preparation for the transfer.

During a summit meeting in 2010, President Lee Myung-bak and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama agreed to delay the transfer to December 2015 from April 2012 in the wake of the North’s sinking of a South Korean corvette.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)

S. Korea to Hold Massive Military Exercises Thursday, Friday

Write 2013-02-14 09:05:16   Update 2013-02-14 11:02:45

South Korea’s military will carry out large training exercises Thursday amid concerns of further provocations from North Korea following its third nuclear test.

The Air Force will conduct a preparedness drill with the participation of key fighter jets, including F-15Ks.

The Navy will mobilize surface ships and aircraft to carry out drills on responding to provocations in the East Sea and Yellow Sea.

The Army is preparing to conduct a massive artillery firing exercise along the border area with North Korea in Gangwon Province on Friday. 

North Korea conducts 3rd nuclear test

Lee, Park condemn test, Obama calls it ‘highly provocative’

Published : 2013-02-12 15:40
Updated : 2013-02-12 20:32

South Koreans watch breaking news on North Korea’s nuclear test at Seoul Station on Tuesday. (Yonhap News)

North Korea on Tuesday conducted a third nuclear test, more powerful than the previous, in its northeast village of Punggye-ri, triggering international condemnation and warnings of tougher sanctions.

The Seoul government said the explosive power of the test was around 6-7 kilotons -- stronger than its two previous tests but far weaker than the “Little Boy” atomic bomb the U.S. dropped in Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945.

The North’s nuclear explosions in 2006 and in 2009 were 1 kiloton and around 2-6 kilotons, respectively, while the Hiroshima bombing was recorded at around 16 kilotons. A kiloton is equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT.

Seoul officials said whether Pyongyang used highly enriched uranium or plutonium for the test was not immediately known, and the communist state had notified the U.S., China and Russia of its test plan on Monday.

An artificial earthquake with a magnitude of 4.9 was detected at around 11:57:50 a.m. in Gilju Country, North Hamgyeong Province, the Korea Meteorological Administration said. The epicenter is where the North carried out the previous atomic tests.

Less than three hours after the earthquake, the North’s official Korean Central TV announced the country had carried out a “high-level, safe, perfect nuclear test with no negative environmental impact.” It stressed a “miniaturized, lightened” atomic bomb was used.

“The nuclear test was carried out to safeguard our nation’s security and sovereignty, as part of our real response to the U.S.’ flagrant, hostile action that encroached upon our right to make a legitimate, peaceful satellite launch,” said the North’s state broadcaster.

“The test results matched our design numbers and estimates, which physically exemplifies the excellent capability of our nuclear deterrence capabilities.”

The test came after the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2087 condemning its launch of the rocket in December, which experts believe had a potential range of 10,000 km.

Seoul’s National Intelligence Service raised the possibility of Pyongyang carrying out additional nuclear tests. 

This satellite image shows traffic flow at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility in North Korea. (AP-Yonhap News)

Both current and incoming Seoul governments strongly condemned the nuclear test, underscoring that it poses a grave threat to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

President Lee Myung-bak convened an emergency session of the National Security Council at an underground security control center at Cheong Wa Dae. Stressing the North’s nuclear test contravened a series of U.N. resolutions, his government pledged to take strong diplomatic measures and step up deterrence against the North.

“Its nuclear test is a clear violation of U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1718, 1874 and 2087. It is an unacceptable threat to peace and stability on the peninsula and Northeast Asia, and a direct challenge to the entire international community,” Lee’s top security secretary Chun Young-woo said during a press conference.

“The North will face grave responsibilities for all results caused by such a provocative action. We will seek necessary measures including U.N. measures in close cooperation with the international community.”

Chun added South Korea will speed up its efforts to bolster its military capabilities including the early deployment of long-range ballistic missiles under development that would put all North Korean military sites within striking range.

President-elect Park Geun-hye renewed her warning that the North will only face deeper international isolation, as she met with President Lee later in the day to discuss responses to the North’s provocation.

“I think the reason why North Korea launched the provocation at the time of government change in South Korea is to cause confusion in our government and anxiety among our people,” she said during her meeting with Lee.

“At this juncture, we should put up a united front and take a cross-partisan approach, and should not allow for any small loophole in our security.”

U.S President Barack Obama pledged to take “all necessary actions” to his country and its allies, calling the atomic test a “highly provocative act.”

“The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations and steadfast in our defense commitments to allies in the region,” Obama said in a statement released some four hours following the first report of the nuclear test.

“The danger posed by North Korea‘s threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community.”

China’s Foreign Ministry said that it was “firmly opposed” to the test, stressing the North conducted the test “in disregard of the common opposition of the international community.”

“Bringing about denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, preventing nuclear proliferation, and safeguarding peace and stability in Northeast Asia is the firm stance of the Chinese side. We strongly urge the DPRK to honor its commitment to denuclearization and refrain from any move that may further worsen the situation,” it said in a statement on its website.

The third nuclear test is expected to affect the incoming Seoul government’s policy toward North Korea. Park has stressed a dialogue-based approach, but her policy could face some readjustment amid the North’s push for elevated nuclear power status, observers said.

South Korea, the rotating chair of the UNSC for this month, called for an emergency meeting at 11:00 p.m., Korean time. The UNSC was expected to issue a statement condemning the test, which could be read out publicly by Seoul’s Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, who is now visiting New York.

As UNSC Resolution 2087 warned of “significant action” in case of North Korea’s additional provocations, tougher sanctions are expected to punish Pyongyang.

Observers say the UNSC could adopt additional sanctions such as freezing the North Korean leadership’s overseas financial assets and sanctioning vessels that travel to the reclusive state.

But it would be unlikely the UNSC would quote Article 42 of the U.N. Charter’s Chapter 7, which offers grounds for military action, in a fresh sanction against the North as China, the sole major ally of the reclusive state, is likely to oppose it, they noted.

There are many cases in which the UNSC quotes Chapter 7, which includes Article 41 authorizing economic and non-military sanctions, and Article 42 for military options. But Beijing has been opposed to quoting Article 42 to punish the North.

The nuclear test came as a surprise. Some observers raised the possibility that the North might delay or cancel the test plan as Beijing and other countries had made aggressive efforts to dissuade the North from carrying it out.

“We had some optimism that the international community could negotiate a way to dissuade the North from the test. But North Korea appears to have made a decision to develop nuclear arms to maintain its regime,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, North Korea expert at Korea University.

“The test also showed that China has only limited influence over the North. But Beijing might not seek a measure that could deal a direct blow to the North.”



By Song Sang-ho
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)

S. Korea to call UNSC meeting if N. Korea conducts nuke test: diplomat

South Korea is ready to request the U.N. Security Council hold an emergency meeting if North Korea follows through on its plan to conduct a nuclear test, a senior Seoul diplomat said Friday.

Predicting when North Korea will carry out the nuclear test is difficult, but the North's threats of a third nuclear test have kept officials in South Korea on tenterhooks.

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan is scheduled to visit New York early next week to preside over the Security Council's open debate.

"If North Korea conducts a nuclear test while Kim is in New York, he will immediately request the U.N. Security Council to hold an emergency session," the diplomat said on the condition of anonymity.

Kim is set to leave for New York on Monday for a four-day visit during which he is also expected to meet with U.N. ambassadors of the United States and Russia to discuss the nuclear test, according to the diplomat.

"During the meetings, Minister Kim will discuss possible Security Council measures in the event of a nuclear test by North Korea," said the diplomat, who has direct knowledge of South Korea's U.N. affairs.

If North Korea conducts a nuclear test before Kim's departure, the minister will cancel the planned visit and a vice foreign minister will preside over the debate, the diplomat said.

South Korea, the president of the 15-nation Security Council this month, will preside over the debate on Tuesday (New York time) on the protection of civilians in armed conflicts, the diplomat said.

North Korea has vowed to conduct its third nuclear test in response to the U.N. Security Council resolution tightening sanctions against the country as punishment for its December rocket launch. The North previously detonated nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009.

Officials in Seoul have said North Korea has completed all preparations and could detonate a nuclear device at any time.

South Korea has invited new U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and other top diplomats from the council members to take part in the open debate, but it has yet to be confirmed whether Kerry will attend, the diplomat said.

(Yonhap News)

Naro launch paves way for economic upgrade

Naro launch paves way for economic upgrade

The successful launch on Wednesday of the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1, or the Naro, has brought South Korea, as Education, Science and Technology Minister Lee Joo-ho put it, a “step forward” in advancing its space technology.

This was Korea’s latest and third launch of a rocket carrying a science satellite into space.

Experts, however, said the mission to see large economic returns in space development was only half-complete, given that the Naro was a “joint-venture” rocket with key engine technology provided by Russia.

Korea’s space launch vehicle Naro-1 stands on the launch pad. 

Drawing an analogy with automobiles, Lee Chang-jin, professor of Konkuk University Aerospace Engineering, said Korea learned how to make a “Pony” sedan equipped with a foreign engine.

The next step Korea is taking is developing its own indigenous rocket ― the KSLV-2, a three-stage rocket with a liquid-fuel engine carrying an application satellite ― by 2021. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute could push this forward to 2018-2019.